Saturday, November 21, 2009

The Latest Facebook Attack on Conservative Values

By now you should all be aware of the ways facebook is undermining society with their recommendations of bands I don't like and their ads with pictures of girls with structurally unsound shirts. This is their latest:



I know absolutely no one else in the world is bothered by this. But I continue to carry the socially conservative fiscally liberal banner. For the children.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Emmy Rossum is totally pretty so shut up

There's something about Special Knowledge that makes people feel cool. You know something that other people don't- that makes you special, unique, different. It makes you chosen. You can exploit this knowledge to your advantage- you are powerful. I'd like to examine three variations on this theme, two of which I will rail against with the snarky invective that all the kids are doing these days, one of which I engage in myself.

1. Emmy Rossum is totally pretty so shut up.

This is actually a reference to an old movie review I read for the movie The Phantom of The Opera. The reviewer said that they recommended the movie because they really liked the actress (Emmy Rossum) who played Christine. Unlike those other actresses like Paris Hilton or Lindsay Lohan who are vain, conceited, self-indulgent, and as ugly on the inside as they are "conventionally beautiful" on the outside, Ms. Rossum has an inner beauty that shines through the prism of her unconventional (yet striking) outer beauty.

Just shut up! Emmy Rossum is so conventionally beautiful that I don't know where to begin. I guess with a picture?



There is another story here about how people accept narratives about people they've never met. Emmy Rossum is maybe very nice. Maybe she's mean. I don't know! But I'm more interested in this kind of Special Knowledge. The reviewer thought he (she?) had special knowledge of Emmy Rossum's beauty. No one else thinks she is beautiful, but I have a secret: I think she's gorgeous.

2. Poker is gambling. Poker is gambling. Poker is gambling.

Last week, I spoke with someone about the World Series of Poker, which is probably the biggest poker tournament in the world. They show it on ESPN all the time. There is a mysterious guy with long hair, sunglasses, and a cowboy hat who throws cards really hard at bananas. There is an Everyman named Chris Moneymaker (!!!) who had a normal white-collar job as an accountant before he entered the WSOP and won the whole thing.

So the guy I was talking to said, "when you think about it, if you really know how to play poker, it's not really gambling. If you know the odds and how to read people, you can control the game, win the game, you can't lose."

Whaaaaaat? There are perhaps a few dozen people in the world who are truly 'professional' poker players. There are thousands who consider themselves good enough to be professional. But even with the odds in your favor, it's still a big risk. No matter how good you are at calculating strategy or reading your opponent, you can't win if you don't get good cards.

In contrast to the Emmy Rossum scenario, I think this kind of Special Knowledge exists, or is true. It is true that some people employ better betting strategies, or can predict how another player will act. But my interest is in how over-emphasized this knowledge is. People may possess it but overestimate its impact.

3. SABR! It began with a bloody 'S'!

SABR is the Society for American Baseball Research. Using well-known baseball statistics like batting average as well as new statistics of their own construction, SABR-metricians, as they are called, seek to explain and investigate the game of baseball using scientific (ish) methods.

And the knowledge that they generate is powerful! Other General Managers of baseball teams don't think that this player is very good, but we know that he's very good. We will get him on our team and have great success, great power. The Oakland Athletics made the playoffs regularly despite having a low payroll because they had this Special Knowledge. They haven't made the playoffs anymore because the beans were spilled, the cat was out of the bag, the Special Knowledge became Common.

I enjoy SABR-metrics because I like that story, and I like answering questions in trustworthy ways. But my fantasy baseball team was very mediocre. Again, perhaps this knowledge is true, but people who have it overestimate its worth.

These are thoughts without conclusions. I'm not exploring how Special Knowledge is good or bad, or the differences between these three cases. I'm just expounding on a subject I've been thinking about lately. But if I had to give any summary, I'd say it's important to know the limits and usefulness of your knowledge.