Thursday, May 22, 2008

Back to Politics

There's this girl that I like. Now it appears that she likes another guy. It must be because he's political and stuff. I bet I could be political, too.

I'm beginning to think, as a Democrat, that having Hillary Clinton in the race is good for the party's chances in the fall. I guess I'm alone in this. The claim is being put forth that Hillary Clinton wants to win so badly that she's willing to go to any length to do it, and if that means salting the Earth so that no Democrat can grow, SO BE IT!

I first disagree with this point just as an accurate narrative of what has happened. Clinton hasn't been that cutthroat. About the only things I can remember that qualify are:

1. Reverend Wright. Was this an incredibly off-base attack that has nothing to do with anything? Yes. Was it damaging to Barack Obama? Maybe. It's strange, but pundits give evidence for this by showing exit polling data. Of those people who didn't vote for Obama, a major reason given was Rev. Wright. But, if you look at the overall trend for Obama, his numbers before and after Wright in terms of popularity and so on were pretty much equal. They went down, sure, but they were already going down before Wright was ever an issue, and they've gone back up since.

In other words: it appears from my armchair analysis that Rev. Wright didn't cause many people to not vote for Obama. Instead, it gave people who were already not going to vote for him a reason for doing this. This fits in well with one understanding of psychology and behavior: we're much more likely to pick a conclusion and build reasons around it, rather than weighing evidence and reaching a conclusion.

2. That commercial where the kid is sleeping and the phone is ringing at the White House. Do you know where your children are!? So it was a silly commercial. Not exactly going for the throat.

3. The One Where Obama Knows That One Guy. Clinton (or someone) said that Obama lived next door to some other guy who did bad things. And also, when he was a lawyer, Obama did some work for a guy who was a radical in the 1970's. Maybe it was the same person? I don't know. But whatever. My point is that it's pretty tame and not very damaging to Obama's chances in November.

Further bolstering my first point that Hillary Clinton hasn't been playing ruthless: if you think she can be mean, just wait for the Republicans and John McCain. Hillary Clinton may say, "Think of the Children!", but John McCain has already said that terrorists want Obama to win. If I'm recalling correctly, it wasn't Hillary Clinton's people who have circulated the rumor that Barack Obama is a Muslim- that would be the crazy right.

So, to conclude my meandering first point: Hillary Clinton isn't salting the Earth. She poses a very small threat for Democrat's chances in November.

My Second Reason Why Hillary Clinton Staying In The Race Isn't As Bad As You Think: it's kind of like altitude training for Obama. We can argue all we want about whether Obama's health care plan covers everyone (it doesn't), or if Hillary's plan will turn us into France (I hope so). But just discussing the issue gets it into everyone's consciousness and frames the debate in a positive manner for Democrats come November. Imagine how completely inadequate John McCain will look by comparison when he says that he wants employers to, uh, group together, or something.

Extend this to any issue you'd like. The longer Barack and Hillary talk about their plans for Iraq, the more that hurts John McCain when he says we should stay there for 100 years and bomb Iran and Palestine and yadda yadda.

So, to conclude:
1. Having Hillary Clinton in the race at the very least poses little threat to Obama's chances in November. She hasn't taken the gloves off (at least not yet), and doesn't seem to be going for the killing blow any time soon.

2. It may actually help the Democrats because it frames issues in a Democratic light.

Of course, this ignores the fact that John McCain is free to do whatever he wants in the meantime before Denver, while Obama is getting pounded. Don't worry. Even if the nomination process goes all the way to Denver, that leaves Obama plenty of time to beat up McCain. Witness Barack schooling him re: Al Qaeda in Iraq. Barack doesn't really start attacks well, but his reaction to them makes his opponent look like an idiot. He's like the anti-Kerry.

8 comments:

Andrew R. Hanson said...
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Andrew R. Hanson said...
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Andrew R. Hanson said...

Haha, I like the part where you say "his fits in well with one understanding of psychology and behavior: we're much more likely to pick a conclusion and build reasons around it, rather than weighing evidence and reaching a conclusion" and proceed to do exactly that!

When you say that Hillary hasn't taken the gloves off(at least not yet), apparently you've forgotten about the oh so successful "kitchen sink" strategy in which Hillary not only took her gloves off, but bra and panties too, and proceeded to throw EVERYTHING SHE COULD at B. Hussein Osama...(cough) I mean Obama. Apparently, having your ability to protect the nation against the threat of terrorism questioned by members of your own party is just a SILLY criticism by your standards. You're rationalizing, David.

I find it interesting that, even knowing that Hillary no longer has a chance, white and old Democrats are choosing to voice their disapproval of the future Democratic nominee rather than uniting behind him.

Still, I think Obama's chances in November are better than McCain's.

David C. Miller said...

Maybe I should be more clear (read: backpedal on what I wrote).

Perhaps it's not that Hillary Clinton HASN'T taken the gloves off. It's that they're prissy pink gloves with Unicorns on them that are incapable of hurting Barack Obama in any way.

Overall, I just like to be Contrarian. You can be, too!

Jordan Lippert said...

Good news: I no longer fear that you are planning to hurt yourself when I visit your blog. Unfortunately I now question your sanity as this last post is way off base.

I think there are several pieces of evidence displaying Hilary Clinton's relative lack of shame in the contest. Thankfully you have cited them yourself only leaving out the behavior of President Bill Clinton off the list. I just want to point out that just because it doesn't work doesn't mean it isn't shameful. What if the swift-boat ads hadn't worked? Would they be any less an affront good politics?

Secondly, I would just like to ask when the last time you heard anyone discussing the issues in the democratic primary. The issues are a dead issue as this race has devolved into a personal popularity contest. Contrast that with a genuine debate of the issues that would occur when the Democrats actually confront those with differing opinions.

David C. Miller said...

"Contrast that with a genuine debate of the issues that would occur when the Democrats actually confront those with differing opinions."

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Good one, Jordan.

Jordan Lippert said...

Oh one glaring omission I now remember is the evolving position of Hilary Clinton in regards to the Michigan and Florida Primaries. It might be the single most contemptible political act of the season.

Andrew R. Hanson said...

I've been thinking this is kind of how Eminem defeated his opponent in 8-mile. And it worked in the movie, so it has to work in real life!!

Obama: Fuck this battle, I don't wanna win! I'm outtie. Here, tell these people somethin' they don't know about me.

McCain: ......
Crowd: Choke! Choke! Choke!